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BTC long-term analysis using log-scale and stock-to-flow ratioHi folks, The next Bitcoin halving takes place in less than a month and I want to provide an outlook of the Bitcoin price for the coming years. For the chart I am using the weekly timeframe with y-axis price illustrated in log. From the halving date on (mid May) we can expect a significant decrease in sell-pressure since the block reward for miners will be halved (12.5 to 6.25). Even if we assume miners completely sell-off their block rewards, we can expect the same demand as we have now to increase the price strongly on a long-term perspective. From the last Bitcoin halving date to the peak of our last bull market it increased 3000%. My point is not, that we will see that increase again, but x multiple is realistic in the coming years, alone by the fact that the supply will decrease. I drew a triangle in the chart (ignoring the 2 wicks) and I believe the Bitcoin halving will help us to break through the upside of it resulting in a strong price gain in the end of 2020 or beg of 2021. In Bitcoin's history the 50-55 RSI lvl tends to serve as support and right now we haven't even reached it. Once we get above it and manage to stay there, we should experience the full strength of the bulls. The stock-to-flow ratio confirms that assumption (stock-to-flow ratio = current reserves / annual generation) given that the price will always move close to it. It is no guarantee, but serves as a great reference. EDIT: I wanted to add a stock-to-flow ratio chart, but I don't know how do it. If anyone knows, I'd highly appreciate it.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn3707027
Watch 30 Minute PC Ratio for Possible Buy SignalMy previous post noted the SPX has over the last several months a very reliable 42 trading day cycle of bottoms. The next cycle bottom is due on 2/4/20. Periodic cycles can have leeway, in this case a leeway of two trading days is acceptable, so its possible an SPX bottom could be in place on 1/31/20. If not, watch the 30 minute P/C ratio - chart symbol PC. Investors Business Daily uses the PC level of 1.15 as an alert for possible bottoms. The two largest SPX corrections on the chart illustrate that when PC goes above 1.15 bottoms can form. On 1/31/20 the RSI on the PC Ratio hit its highest level since the tiny 12/3/19 bottom which is evidence that an SPX bottom could already be in place. However the PC ratio could continue to rise above 1.15 with the RSI diverging against the high it made on 1/31/20. Be on alert February 3rd to the 6th, if the SPX goes below its low made on 1/31/20 with a PC ratio above 1.15 it could be a fantastic opportunity to go long stocks. Mark
USI:PC
by markrivest
7
NIFTY50...New High`s! What to expect?Hello Traders NIFTY50 closed the week @ 12352.35 and moved above last weeks high, which was a „hammer-candle“ and it is bullish. Any price action below the hammer´s candle low @ 11929.60 open the door to much higher price still, `cause a hammer candle reflects 3-5 weeks (at this case) of advancing price. This weeks high touched the upper rising trendline, blue, and closed above the high of last week's candle. So, a pop above 12389.05 is the door opener for new ATH in the coming days and weeks. Let us consider the a/d-ratio as per Friday`s close, it was just tame @ 1.03 for the NSE www.traderscockpit.com ! I think this ratio is important to watch. Because a nearly flat ratio at a new ATH is not what I like to see at this point. The TRIN popped this week to 3.202 (Friday) and indicates possibly overwhelming optimism for advancing price! If so, such behavior at this point at chart will alert us for a possible correction at a larger degree, maybe more. For now, there is no such sign to observe, but as always. Nobody will knock at your door and tells you:“..Hey, a crash is just around the corner“! Always expect the unexpected and be patient these days. At the 2-hour chart, you will observe price action at or close above the rising red trendline, that connects the late October 2018 low and the mid-February 2019 low. Price popped on January 9 above the line and holds above this line since then. So, any trading above is bullish, while a correction has to end 12027 on a daily basis (closing price) at a minimum. As you know „round“ numbers as the 12K level often act as a magnet for price. Note this! On the other hand and as before. `Cause of the weekly hammer-candle a phase of 3-5 weeks of advancing price is possible, as long as the low of the candle @ 11929.60 is valid. A close below this area is a failed buy-signal and these are more often than not a good sell-signal. Keep that in mind. Have a great week... ruebennase Feel free to ask or comment.      Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
NSE:NIFTY
by ruebennase
XRP/BTC Start of Altcoin SeasonHey traders, today we're looking at XRP/BTC ratio chart. First off, it's pretty obvious that an altcoin season is underway. The Bitcoin dominance has peaked at around 72% and is having a hard time breaking back over support at 69. Meanwhile, all of the alts have slowly but surely been gaining satoshi value, and that isn't just going to reverse anytime soon. Take a look at the 1st and 2nd wick on this chart, those wicks marked the absolute bottom of the market. It's delusional to think we're going back down there. XRP/BTC has also regained support of it's long term uptrend stending from ALL of the previous altcoin season run-ups. The wedge I drew is basically just a resistance line at 3292 sats, confirmed uptrend from the 2nd wick. Just take a look at how the candlesticks interact with all of the lines I drew, trading really is just clockwork. Now with the price of XRP/BTC, this week I don't expect a huge move from either coin, actually don't expect anything until the start of the new monthly candle in November. If anything, we could see a retest of the 4H hold or even the topside of the wedge at 3292 sats. All I know is, we're not going back down to touch the monthly all the way at the bottom. Possibly not even touching that long term uptrend until the bottom of the next cycle. This coin is actually about to pop off very soon, it's just a matter of time before it does. Nothing breaks a yearly long downtrend and has no price movement. We're going to see something crazy.. Every single time the XRP/BTC chart has looked like this, we've seen a rocket shooting the price up within weeks. I don't think this time should be any less different, history repeats itself. As always, do your own research, I am not a financial advisor.
Long
by kyer
1
BTC.Divergence Hypothesis.Version 4.UpdateThis Divergence hypothesis is just that, a HYPOTHESIS looking at the Daily RSI chart pattern and what or how it develops (not to be taken seriously). However saying that, today, I looked at the RSI more closely and found some fluency in the pattern\s. Interesting at that. Guessing what will come is just that, but the historical formation with both price and RSI pattern gives good insight. Its interesting and possible can help us to look at specific things as time goes by, leaving a clues as to how it will behave in the future. For now, it doesn't help with the daily trading but I think it gives us something to keep an eye out. Note: Moving beyond today, these red arrows indicate the bottom <<"SUPPORT" >> of the future support\resistance movement. Not the top lines. Also NVT and RVT Ratio helps in some way to identify tops and bottoms. Right now, I believe we have more to the down side at the micro level within the formation Looking at the RVT ratio chart, historical support level gives us a clue charts.woobull.com RSI Daily Chart BULLISH RSI Daily Chart Hypothesis Cheers, S.Sari Previous Posts Version 3 Version 2 Version 1
Long
by ssari
Platinum Looking to Join Gold / Silver RallyPlatinum looks like bulls have finally stepped in. It has been consolidating within a $150 range for over a year. The blue dashed line in a trend-line connected from the all time low in 2008. The Gold /Silver ratio recently started to reverse. This could indicate that gold is being perceived as "expensive" compared to related metals. I have no reason to think why platinum would be excluded from this class. There are a couple more resistance areas (marked on the chart), but we could see a decent run in once price breaks above these levels. I have a couple ratio charts that I will post along with my interpretation of what they are telling us. I will post the weekly chart in the comments just to show the potential upside if price returns to historical levels.
OANDA:XPTUSDLong
by cccpKGB1
2
The REAL Bitcoin market structureEarlier today, I saw a chart of the BTCUSD/SPX chart on twitter. The structure of that chart is more accurate than the original BTCUSD chart. And then I tested it by the same methodology but this time on SHCOMP (SSE Composite Index which is the Chinese stock market index). The final formula is BITSTAMP:BTCUSD*FOREXCOM:USDCNH/ Here is where the magic happens: This ratio chart shows a precisely clear triangle structure in 2018 and a double bottom in early 2019. This result means that the money flow from China to the Bitcoin market leads.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by discountry
NIFTY50...Wave "B" done or up to new highs?Hello Traders, I wish you merry christmas and happy holiday. As of my last analyse has gaped higher, after taking a „deep breath“ to a new countertrend high. N50 also created a „Island reversal gap“ which often indicate a change of trend. So by observing the hourly and 15 min chart, since the high at 10985 a sharp cecline to the downside is in progress. The first countertrend from 10985 to 10880 was just retraced by 0.8 tics of the 0.786 retracement. So the odds are to favor, that as long the high at 10985 is in place, the next move is focused to the downside and will lead to an impulsiv structure. Another pretty good view is to check the SGX NIFTY INDEX Future that too shows the strucure with overlapping waves amd a retracement just shy below the 0.618 Fibonacci. On the longterm chart you will observe that it is poosible to count a complete „five-up“ which will lead definetly to a correction that has started at 11751.80. The drop down to 1003 is either wave A of this correction or it is done. To my view it is not done, because it is not clear to watch that this drop is a „three-down“! So we might had a Wave „A“ down, a „B“ up and next is „C“ down to fresh new lows. A solid break of the red trendline, that connect the lows from 2008-10-13 @ 2252.75 and 2016-02-29 @ 6825 will a first hint that the wave C down is underway. It is to early to call a price target for such a drop but a possible range could be at 8710. More bearish potencial exist! On the short term view, price have come back to a 0.382 Fibonacci from 10333-10985. This level is often an important one and will show some reaction by traders and investors. It is quite possible that price will bounce for some hours to correct this drop. As long as the high at 10985 is not exceed the focus is to the downside. A sizeable targetzone is around the 10582, a 0.618 Fibonacci. A solid close below the 10473 will increase the odds for a ongoing decline in N50 while a solid cross above the level of 10880 will eliminate the bearish idea of an impulsiv structure, `cause we will get a „wave cut“ and indicate an a-b-c move, so the next push will be to the upside. The graph below the analyse show you the TRIN (Arms Index) which is often use as an indicator for oversold/overbought levels. There is nothing to observe that show some extraordinary conditions. www.traderscockpit.com Just a quick look to the „option chain“ shows some interesting position in case of OI for N50! There is a huge OI around the 10K area which possible will lead N50 to a sharp decline within the next days or weeks, because investors will do „everyhing“, sooner or later, to get there positions „into money“! The Put/Call-Ratio (Dec 27, 2018) for NIFTY IT shows a Ratio of 2 that suggest a bearish sentiment too. I will update the chart if the odds have changed or a clear wave strucure is to observe. Have a great day... ruebennase
NSE:NIFTY
by ruebennase
Beaware of shorting USDPY.The chart i have put up here is Ratio chart between US & Japan 10 year Bond price. this ratio chart has inverse correlation to $/Yen. Ratio chart which is a blue line broke down from the channel is likely to continue lower given the momentum on weekly & daily chart, which is likely to send the pair higher from here. I am also doubtful whether issue between N.K. & U.S. would actually escalate further as china is urging restraint over North Korea. Moreover the world knows about the destruction which nukes can have, but you never know as both Trump & Kim-Jong-Un are extreme minded people they can worsen the situation though.
TVC:US10Long
by Akshay15
HYG (High Yield Corporate Bonds) set to outperform TLTUS Corporate Bonds (8-10Yrs) Vs US Treasury Bonds (20Yrs) Rising Ratio = Corporates Outperforming Treasuries BLUE BARS = THE S&P500 STOCK MARKET INDEX When Corporates underperform Treasuries and the ratio declines on this chart (black bars), USUALLY the stock market has gone down at the same time (NOTE THE BLUE BARS at the same time as the RED HIGHLIGHTED AREAS on the ratio chart). Treasuries in the last year have rocketed higher and is very likely from Central Banks both here in the US and around the world buying up US Treasuries (and the US Dollar). HYG looks poised to outperform TLT to the tune of 10%-30% over the next year. (Note: the MACD is a measure of the 12 and 26 week moving average. When the 12-week average is above the 26-week average, the "trend" can be considered "UP" and vice-versa. You can see the long trend down in the MACD that has now turned back UP, possibly signifying a change in "trend" from down to up.) Tim April 2, 2015 11:23AM EST 68.97 Ratio of (HYG*100/TLT). HYG is 90.48 +0.09, TLT is 131.21 -0.92 today
AMEX:HYGLong
by timwest
10
Vote on your opinion for the next $10 move in USOIL!I've published other charts that involve the ratio of gold to oil but this chart just "looked" like something I wanted you all to see. You can see the "relationship" that silver and crude oil have over the long haul (the last 10+ years) and how these markets move with each other. When we look for a bull market in silver, for example, we really also need a bull market in crude oil to help it along. You don't get one without the other. The cost of goods has fallen here and have enriched all of the consuming countries and are leaving the producing countries and companies in a dangerous position here where their ability to survive is being challenged. The amount of debt in the energy sector will have a difficult time being rolled over with every day that oil spends down at these prices. I'll make a ratio chart next to see how many ounces of silver it takes to buy a barrel of oil over the long term and see where we are in the relationship. Is oil too cheap here relative to the S&P500? I think so. Could it go lower still in the short term? Yes, of course. Traders could push it down further and squeeze the producers who are running short on cash. OR, we could have a supply disruption event like we saw in the 1970's where all of our assumptions could be turned upside down very quickly. What are your thoughts? Feel free to share here. Easier question: What direction is the next $10 move in crude oil? I'll put an UP comment and a DOWN comment - click on AGREE of whichever one you think. (Only vote once) Tim 11:42AM EST 11/17/2015
FX:USOIL
by timwest
46
Intermarket analysis: Paradigm shiftI was considering two alternative scenarios for the market. Initially I thought the Euro rally and equities meltdown had more merit, but after close scrutiny and being stopped out and thus having my EURUSD and USDCHF long and short invalidated, I realized that the appetite for risk was evident, had I looked at it without weighing in my risk off rally thesis so heavily. After I noticed that NZD and AUD could have bottomed, I published bullish charts for AUDUSD and NZDUSD. These, on a correlational basis, conflicted with my Euro rally thesis, which involved equities taking a turn south for the rest of the year, potentially well into 2016, when monetary policy adjustments would have become a concern again. This also implied that oil would have turned south, which was conflicting with an anti dollar rally of a large scale. Evidently, someone is heavily buying commodities, with gold leading the pack in terms of relative strength. The dollar remains weak nevertheless, don't let the Euro meltdown confuse you. On a relative strength basis, my analysis on the XAUUSD/DXY ratio is still valid, and lays a very strong case against broad scale deflationary woes. The dollar isn't rallying against AUD or NZD, like it has happened in the past. These commodity currencies are offering very clear signs of strength, and tempting longs on evidently imbalanced crosses if you know where to look. For now, my view is that we will see equities rally, crude not falling or rallying as well, gold and all the commodities commercials are long on rallying, and potentially very interesting trades in eur and jpy crosses. Pairing weak with strong makes for very sharp moves, so keep this in mind and experiment with ratio charts, and studies in correlation by yourself. If you want live updates and more information, make sure to follow me at collective2, where I provide signals for auto trading and via email for a monthly fee. I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom free of charge for concordbay.com customers, contact me via skype for more details. Cheers, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
AMEX:FXE
by IvanLabrie
6
Clarifying Targets // Crab&Bat // IF=THEN ®Check previous published ideas for FX:EURUSD Just to clarify potential targets for the Crab Pattern (and a Bat in the middle, Orange pattern). Typically the point D ends with the XA extension and not as i demonstrate here an AB extension. But both of the targets are correct . We can adjust those targets synced with previous structure, or taking into account the behaviour of price action at that time of the trade... ... in this case, both of the D point's are valid and synced with previous structure... AB extension synced with previous structure highs (resistance) and XA extension with previous structure lows (support). Both now acting as Support obviously. ;) BAT: Point B: 38.2% to 50% XA Point C: 38.2% to 88.6% AB Point D: 88.6% XA Targets: TP1 38.2% AD TP2 61.8% AD CRAB Point B: 38.2% to 61.8% XA Point C: 38.2% to 88.6% AB Point D: 161% ext XA 224% to 316% ext AB Targets: TP1 61.8% CD TP2 127% CD Hereupon... Long @D ;) Ratios here: Safe Trades; Trading_Jazz
Long
by Andre_Cardoso